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Insights · BDCs & Listed Private Credit Vehicles

Monday, 27 July 2026

BDC Earnings Wave Breaks This Week — ARCC on Wednesday, GBDC on Monday; FSK & OBDC Follow Next Week

The week of July 28 is the most concentrated BDC earnings window of the quarter. Golub Capital BDC (GBDC) reports today (Monday), followed by the sector's bellwether, Ares Capital (ARCC), before the open on Wednesday July 29 — consensus expects $0.47 EPS and ~$770M revenue, against a Q1 that narrowly missed. Blue Owl (OBDC) and FS KKR (FSK) follow the week after (Aug. 5–6); FSK enters with the most risk given a Q1 miss, a 24% year-over-year revenue decline, and a consensus 'Reduce' rating.

The sector backdrop is mixed but not alarming: prior-week prints showed idiosyncratic NAV stress (SAR -5%) alongside NII beats (MAIN, CSWC), and deal-flow signals from TRIN suggest the origination environment is improving. Elevated short interest in BXSL (lending rates at 12.2%) is worth monitoring for contagion to other names as earnings land.

What you need to know

  • WATCH MONDAY: Golub Capital BDC (GBDC) reports quarterly earnings today (July 28); the result will be the first major data point of the current BDC earnings cycle.
  • WATCH WEDNESDAY: Ares Capital (ARCC) — the sector's largest BDC — reports Q2 2026 before the open on July 29, with consensus at $0.47 EPS and ~$770M revenue; a miss or NAV deterioration would set a negative tone for the entire wave.
  • NEXT WEEK PIPELINE: Blue Owl Capital (OBDC, Aug. 5 after close, consensus $0.32 EPS / ~$397M revenue) and FS KKR Capital (FSK, Aug. 6 after close, consensus $0.41 EPS / ~$287M revenue) follow; FSK enters with a 'Reduce' consensus and a Q1 miss already on record.
  • SECTOR BACKDROP: The prior week's BDC earnings were mixed — SAR posted a ~5% NAV drop while MAIN and CSWC beat on NII but showed only modest NAV movement; TRIN new commitments exceeded $700M, suggesting deal-flow recovery.
  • ELEVATED SHORT INTEREST SIGNAL: BXSL share-lending rates surged to 12.2%, a notable spike that may reflect hedging activity ahead of earnings season — worth monitoring for spread to other names.

This Week's Earnings: ARCC (Wed. July 29) Is the Pivotal Print

Why this matters  ARCC is the largest publicly-traded BDC; its NAV mark, non-accrual disclosures, and dividend guidance will function as a sector-wide credit health read-through — a miss or credit deterioration here will reprice peers before they report.

Ares Capital (ARCC) is expected to release Q2 2026 results before the market opens on Wednesday, July 29, with a conference call at 12:00 PM ET the same day. 1

Analyst consensus for ARCC Q2 stands at $0.47 EPS and approximately $770M in revenue. 1

In Q1 2026, ARCC reported $0.47 EPS — missing the $0.48 consensus by $0.01 — on revenue of $763M versus an $778M estimate; quarterly revenue was nonetheless up 4.2% year-over-year. 1

Full-year analyst consensus for ARCC is $2.00 EPS for both the current and next fiscal year. 1

ARCC shares carry a market cap of approximately $13.48 billion, a P/E of 11.52, and a 52-week range of $17.40–$23.15. 1

Sources

  1. 1. Ares Capital (ARCC) Expected to Release Earnings on Wednesday — dailypolitical.com · July 26, 2026

Monday Catalyst: GBDC Reports Today

Why this matters  GBDC's result arrives first in the cycle; its NAV trajectory and credit quality commentary will calibrate expectations for the larger names reporting later this week and next — watch especially for any non-accrual movement.

Golub Capital BDC (GBDC) is scheduled to announce its quarterly earnings on Monday, July 28. 1

OMERS Administration Corp increased its GBDC position by 17.9% in Q1, bringing its stake to approximately 3.56 million shares valued at roughly $45.1 million — a signal of continued institutional conviction heading into the print. 2

Separately, Callodine Capital Management reduced its GBDC stake by 55.6% in Q1, selling 250,000 shares and retaining 200,000 shares valued at approximately $2.5 million — a contrasting institutional move to watch against the earnings result. 3

Sources

  1. 1. Golub Capital BDC (GBDC) to Announce Quarterly Earnings on Monday - Zolmax — Alphonse Anthony · July 27, 2026
  2. 2. OMERS ADMINISTRATION Corp Has $45.06 Million Position in Golub Capital BDC, Inc. $GBDC - Watch List News — Lindsey Winhoffer · July 26, 2026
  3. 3. Golub Capital BDC, Inc. $GBDC Shares Sold by Callodine Capital Management LP - Stock Observer — Brian Himes · July 26, 2026

Next-Week Pipeline: OBDC (Aug. 5) and FSK (Aug. 6) — FSK Enters with Elevated Risk

Why this matters  FSK carries a consensus 'Reduce' rating and a Q1 miss; investors should watch whether Q2 revenue stabilizes after a 24% year-over-year decline last quarter, and whether the dividend — currently implying a ~15.8% yield — remains covered by NII.

Blue Owl Capital (OBDC) is scheduled to report Q2 2026 results after the close on August 5, with a conference call on August 6 at 10:00 AM ET; consensus EPS is $0.32 and expected revenue is approximately $397M. 1

Multiple institutional investors initiated new FSK positions in Q1, including Callodine Capital Management (approximately $13.6M, ~1.33M shares) and Absolute Gestao de Investimentos (approximately $1.2M, 115,000 shares), while analyst downgrades from multiple firms — including a target cut and a downgrade to 'strong sell' — create a mixed institutional signal. 2

Sources

  1. 1. Blue Owl Capital Q2 2026 Earnings Report — marketbeat.com · July 27, 2026
  2. 2. Absolute Gestao de Investimentos Ltda. Buys New Position in FS KKR Capital Corp. $FSK - American Market News — ABMN Staff · July 26, 2026

Sector Backdrop: Mixed Prior-Week Earnings; Deal Flow Recovering

Why this matters  The divergence between NAV decliners (SAR) and NII beaters (MAIN, CSWC) suggests credit stress is idiosyncratic rather than systemic for now — but investors should watch whether this week's larger-cap prints confirm or break that pattern.

TRIN's new commitments exceeded $700M, which the weekly review characterized as indicating a rebound in deal activity and potential fee income. 1

Sector headwinds including low deal flow and tight spreads were described as easing, supporting the view that BDC lending rates remain appealing. 1

Sources

  1. 1. BDC Weekly Review: BDC Lending Rates Are Appealing | Seeking Alpha — seekingalpha.com · July 27, 2026

Short-Interest Watch: BXSL Lending Rates Spike to 12.2%

Why this matters  A surge in share-lending rates to this level signals heightened short positioning in BXSL ahead of earnings season; if the pattern spreads to other names, it could create both a hedging cost and — for long holders willing to lend — an incremental income opportunity.

BXSL share-lending rates surged to 12.2% in the prior week, signaling heightened short interest in the name. 1

The weekly review noted this elevated lending rate as offering attractive additional income for investors willing to lend their shares. 1

Sources

  1. 1. BDC Weekly Review: BDC Lending Rates Are Appealing | Seeking Alpha — seekingalpha.com · July 27, 2026

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